Impact of Climate Change on Natural Resources at EL-Damazine and AT -Tamadon Localities Blue Nile State

Abstract

Adaptations of small scale farmers to climate change impact on crop production under rainfed conditions at the Blue Nile state were investigated.   The study focused of two localities El-Damazine and Al-Tamadon at Blue Nile state, Sudan, during the years 2010 - 2011. Eleven villages (18655 households) were selected according to a sampling technique with sample size of 200. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to detect drought in areas cultivated, harvested and the grain yields for the years from 1971 to 2010. Crop-climate model was used to isolate and quantify the effects of the various factors that influence crop production (sorghum, millet and sesame). Field visits and direct observations of farmers’ different practices were recorded. Secondary data utilized Government documents and records in the relevant departments (ministry of agriculture and   statistical bureau at the Blue Nile state, Sudan metrological authority), (ii) written reports, thesis, pamphlets, papers, articles, photos and maps, aerial photography and cartographic material, (iii) data on the characteristics of the population and aspects of economic activity in the region. The data analysis adopted the descriptive Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS, version 16). Regression analysis was used to assess the effects of climatic variations on crop production; paired t-test was used to compare production between the beginning and end of each season. SPI showed a moderate to extreme drought events during the years (from 1972 to 2008), with shorter growing season. Statistical regression model that correlated rainfall to crop production, showed clear decline in crop production with various degrees. Several coping mechanisms were observed during the field visits as could be envisaged in early sowing to have the benefits of the early rains and to repeat sowing later in case of seed germination failure. Sowing of many seeds within a hole to make sure that some were not blown by wind, but in case if many succeeded to grow, some would be pulled out (Shelikh). Mulching was done by leaving stalks on the ground to maintain soil moisture. Farmers have storage pits to save seeds for the coming season. They also have the indigenous knowledge of predicting drought of what is known as ‘Traditional Divisions of Lunar’. It could be concluded that rain fed agriculture is inherently sensitive to climate conditions and is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the risks and impact of climate change mainly determined by rainfall and warming of air temperatures. Adaptations of farmers under rain fed conditions to climate change my take different forms to hedge risks against extreme crop failures.